Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 2.154722 2.268588 2.391174 2.534100 2.697701 2.881095 3.105182
2025-10-19 2.027892 2.170643 2.330461 2.525493 2.761337 3.043534 3.417508
2025-10-26 1.948083 2.109538 2.295428 2.530127 2.826420 3.200739 3.734444
2025-11-02 1.861232 2.030584 2.229161 2.485674 2.819364 3.257990 3.920091
2025-11-09 1.802767 1.980023 2.191342 2.470169 2.843430 3.353799 4.171881
2025-11-16 1.754435 1.938005 2.160002 2.458439 2.868440 3.450178 4.440112
2025-11-23 1.710489 1.898545 2.128729 2.443179 2.885143 3.533733 4.702951
2025-11-30 1.684648 1.879826 2.121972 2.458850 2.945075 3.688236 5.131085
2025-12-07 1.626856 1.818431 2.057141 2.391217 2.877660 3.631521 5.134467
2025-12-14 1.594068 1.787485 2.030469 2.374393 2.883731 3.694824 5.401791
2025-12-21 1.559519 1.753003 1.997597 2.346833 2.870953 3.723988 5.602905
2025-12-28 1.550126 1.750339 2.006417 2.378141 2.950477 3.923295 6.284455
2026-01-04 1.549564 1.759858 2.032917 2.437998 3.083698 4.251132 7.563238
2026-01-11 1.525010 1.736845 2.013943 2.429479 3.103653 4.363379 8.289731
2026-01-18 1.506280 1.720828 2.003775 2.433239 3.144179 4.525182 9.394240
2026-01-25 1.473718 1.685412 1.965379 2.392104 3.103518 4.504883 9.690309
2026-02-01 1.451619 1.663422 1.945006 2.377588 3.108512 4.587792 10.641750
2026-02-08 1.431841 1.643997 1.927537 2.366600 3.118725 4.684773 11.896753
2026-02-15 1.412055 1.624040 1.908643 2.352414 3.121871 4.765752 13.306769
2026-02-22 1.402165 1.617163 1.907977 2.366674 3.178401 4.992039 17.143379
2026-03-01 1.369306 1.578279 1.860466 2.304403 3.086369 4.815489 15.670052
2026-03-08 1.351829 1.560137 1.842401 2.288836 3.082770 4.876498 17.833237
2026-03-15 1.332049 1.538462 1.818722 2.263380 3.058643 4.878724 19.344220